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Only two days prior to the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just who would win citywide, but block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes that came in after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump last year backed the progressive now. But it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might go over two million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does because then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That really surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.